Key Points
India could boost US energy imports to ease tariffs
Defense cooperation and agri-tariff cuts may aid negotiations
Reciprocal tariffs likely but impact on exports minimal
North American supply chains limit immediate trade gains
In the fast-changing global trade dynamics amid Trump’s "love for a deal", Emkay Global Financial Services identified some "easy wins" for India, like increasing energy (crude oil, natural gas) imports from the US, enhancing defence purchases and co-operation, reducing tariffs on certain agri/food commodities and lowering tariffs on foreign electric vehicles (EVs).
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd's Chief Economist Madhavi Arora said that the broad sector-level reciprocal implementation is the most probable outcome on April 2, given complications around sector or commodity level tariff assessments across the value chains.
"India will need to strive harder to gain market share in this new leg of the global trade war. At the end of it, our view is that the tariff will not be a big blow to India, as the negotiations will be fruitful, with a slight impact on overall Indian exports to the US," she said.
As for tariffs on Mexico and Canada, there are some export opportunities (refined petroleum, auto components), but the integrated nature of North American supply chains means that any gains, if at all, will take time to accrue to India.
Trump has said that he expects India to lower tariffs substantially, but will go ahead with his plan to charge a reciprocal rate. "I believe they’re going to probably going to be lowering those tariffs substantially, but on April 2, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us," he said last week.
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also visited Washington this month and spoke to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a bid to stave off the tariff hikes.
