Trump presidency driving falling support for Australian opposition ahead of election: Polls

Several major opinion polls published in recent days have shown that voter support for incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his governing Labor Party is continuing to grow as the campaign for the May 3 election reaches the halfway point.

One poll undertaken by research firm Resolve Strategic and published by Nine Entertainment newspapers on Monday night estimated that Labor leads Dutton's Coalition 53.5-46.5 per cent in two-party terms. The same poll in late March had the two major parties deadlocked at 50-50.

Asked about how their view of Trump would influence their vote at the upcoming election, 33 per cent of respondents said that it has made them less likely to vote for Dutton and the Coalition, with 14 per cent more likely to do so and 53 per cent either undecided or saying it would have no effect.

By comparison, 22 per cent of respondents said their view of Trump has made them more likely to vote for Albanese and Labor, with 21 per cent less likely, Xinhua news agency reported.

Among undecided voters, 35 per cent said they were less likely to vote for Dutton and the Coalition because of their view of Trump compared to 24 per cent who said the same for Albanese and Labor.

The survey found that 68 per cent of voters now believe that Trump's victory in the 2024 US election has been a bad outcome for Australia, up from 60 per cent in March and 40 per cent in November.

"Trump equals uncertainty, and that's really affecting Dutton's campaign to convince people to take a risk on changing government," Resolve Director Jim Reed said.

Labor has repeatedly drawn comparisons between Dutton and Trump. Dutton earlier in April abandoned the Coalition's election promise to cut 41,000 public service jobs and end flexible work arrangements for federal public servants -- a policy that senior Labor figures had described as "Trumpian".

Coalition Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who Dutton in January appointed as his shadow minister for government efficiency, on Saturday said at a press conference alongside Dutton in Western Australia that a Coalition government would "make Australia great again".

Formally launching Labor's election campaign in WA on Sunday, Albanese said that Australia is a "great country" that doesn't need to "borrow slogans" or ideas.

A second poll published on Monday by market research company Roy Morgan found that Labor leads the Coalition 54.5-45.5 per cent on a two-party basis.

Labor won the 2022 election 52.13-47.87 on a two-party basis. The Roy Morgan poll found that Labor is on track to increase its majority in the 150-seat lower house of parliament -- the House of Representatives -- where the government is formed.

Entering the election, Labor holds 77 seats in the lower house compared to 53 for the Coalition.

Michele Levine, Chief Executive of Roy Morgan, said that Trump's worldwide tariffs caused extreme market upheaval and that voters usually swing towards incumbent governments during times of uncertainty.

Two more polls, one published by News Corp Australia newspapers on Sunday and the other by the Guardian Australia on Tuesday, also found that Labor is on track for victory in the election.

The News Corp poll found Labor leads the Coalition 52-48 and the Guardian's, which allows voters to remain uncommitted, put Labor ahead 50-45.

Albanese and Dutton will on Wednesday night go head-to-head in the second leaders' debate. Albanese was declared the winner of the first debate on April 8.