Key Points
Taiwan's Han Kuang drills target China's possible 2027 invasion
Security experts highlight 2027 as key defense deadline
US military urged to prepare for China's strategic advances
The decision comes as security experts and military officials worldwide continue to cite 2027 as a key deadline for Taiwan's defence strategy.
Former US Navy admiral Philip Davidson previously warned that China could attempt to invade Taiwan by 2027. While Beijing denied the claim at the time, calling it a US pretext to boost military spending, the year has since been widely referenced in discussions on defence planning. Former US Indo-Pacific commander John Aquilino reiterated last year that with a 2027 timetable set by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the US military must be prepared for contingencies before then.
Institute for National Defence and Security Research fellow Su Tzu-yun said it is normal to use timelines as a reference for defence strategy. While Xi has reportedly instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared for an invasion by 2027, Su noted that there is no clear indication a formal decision has been made to resort to force by then.
On Feb. 2, 2023, then-CIA director William Burns described Xi's directive to the PLA as a "reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition," reported Taipei Times.
More recently, US Air Force Strategic Commander General Anthony Cotton stated that China is accelerating its military expansion, particularly in dual-use shipyards and nuclear weapons launch platforms. He said these developments align with preparations to have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027, adding that the US should expedite its own military production in response.
Security analysts worldwide have urged their governments to prepare for a possible conflict. Japanese expert Takashi Kawakami and former Australian Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo have both called for accelerated defence measures. Meanwhile, Davidson stressed that whether or not China launches an invasion in 2027, it will continue efforts to weaken US influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Su noted that various defence think tanks have proposed alternative deadlines, including 2035 and 2049, both of which mark major PLA anniversaries. However, he warned that if Xi seeks a fourth term, he may take military risks to justify his leadership.
Combined with China's growing ambitions as a maritime power, this could create a "perfect storm," he said, adding that the Han Kuang exercises' focus on 2027 is a logical response to these concerns, Taipei Times reported.
The defence ministry last week concluded its "immediate response drills," which Su said followed the principle of risk control. He added that these drills were specifically designed to deter China from "turning exercises into war."
