Economic Forecast News - Latest Updates & Headlines
Mark Mobius: India has potential to become world's 2nd-largest economy
New Delhi, April 16: Not just the world's third-largest economy, India has the potential to become the second-largest economy if it remains on the current path of resilience and policy continuity, billionaire investor Mark Mobius said on Wednesday.
RBI to take rate cut down to 5.5 pc in FY26, CPI inflation to average 3.7 pc: HSBC
New Delhi, April 16: The RBI has already embarked on a rate cutting cycle, and a report by HSBC Global Research said on Wednesday that it expects a 25bp rate cut in each of the June and August policy meetings, taking the repo rate down to 5.5 per cent this fiscal (FY26).
India's will have a bi-lateral trade agreement with US in next few months: Morgan Stanley
New Delhi, April 16: India's potential trade deal with the US may take time, but it is more likely to happen in the next few months, and it could help India gain a share in the US market. However, a report by Morgan Stanley says elevated tariffs between the US and China may impact global growth and global trade.
India's CPI inflation to average 4.3 pc this fiscal: Crisil
New Delhi, April 16: A Crisil report on Wednesday projected India's CPI inflation to average 4.3 per cent this fiscal (FY26) -- with food, fuel and core inflation at 4.6 per cent, 2.5 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively.
RBI may cut rates by 50 bps in June and August, says SBI Research
New Delhi, April 16: As inflation hits a multi-year low and expectations remain subdued, a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of 50 basis points is possible in June and August, said a report by SBI Research.
Higher US tariffs & China offloading will delay Private Capex pick up in India: UBS
New Delhi, April 15: The recovery in private corporate investment in India may face further delays due to weak corporate sentiment triggered by higher U.S. tariffs and the risk of China offloading excess manufacturing capacity, according to a recent report by UBS.
Crisil projects 6.5 pc GDP growth for India in fiscal 2026 amid US tariffs
New Delhi, April 14: While US tariff hikes remain a key risk to growth forecast, global credit rating agency Crisil on Monday projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for India in fiscal 2026, with risks tilted to the downside.
US tariff war with China is of significant strategic imperative, unlikely to wane off soon: Prabhudas Lilladher
New Delhi, April 13: Financial advisory firm Prabhudas Lilladher asserted that US tariff war with China is of significant strategic imperative and is unlikely to wane off soon, even if the US enters into bilateral trade agreements with various countries. According to the financial advisory firm, the current tariff stand-off will impact supply chains, global growth and money flow through first half of 2026 which could shave off 0.5 per cent from global GDP and result in increased volatility in commodities and currencies.
Indian consumer sector to see recovery from Q1FY26 led by rural revival: Report
New Delhi, April 12: The Indian consumer sector will see a gradual recovery starting from the first quarter of financial year 2026 (Q1FY26), driven by encouraging signs of rural revival, even as urban demand remains tepid in the near term, according to a report by HDFC Securities.
India set to outperform other emerging markets amid global uncertainty: Jefferies
New Delhi, April 11: Global brokerage Jefferies has issued an 'overweight' call on India, saying that the country is set to outperform other emerging markets (EMs) amid rising global uncertainties.
Global brokerages project more RBI rate cuts this fiscal
New Delhi, April 9: The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent and shift its stance to ‘accommodative’ from ‘neutral’ has strengthened expectations among global brokerages of further monetary easing in the coming months.
Inflation projected at 4% in FY25- 26, risk evenly balanced amid good monsoon and trade uncertainty: RBI
Mumbai, April 9: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, said that inflation is expected to remain under control in the financial year 2025-26.
Amdist Tariff challenges, RBI revises growth expectation from 6.7 % to 6.5% in FY25-26
Mumbai, April 9: India's real GDP is revised downwards to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year 2025-26 from earlier expectation of 6.7 per cent, highlighted Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra during the policy announcement on Wednesday.
Conducive conditions for a 25 basis point cut in April, 5.50 per cent repo rate by year-end: Goldman Sachs
New Delhi, April 8: The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) repo rate is expected to drop by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.00 per cent after the ongoing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, according to Goldman Sachs.
India's inflation may stay below 4% in first half of FY26: SBI Report
New Delhi, April 7: The inflation in India may remain below 4 per cent in the first half of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), said a report by State Bank of India (SBI).
India's 10Y bond yield projected to trade between 6.25-6.55 pc in FY26
New Delhi, April 5: India’s 10-year (10Y) bond yield is projected to trade between 6.25-6.55 per cent in current fiscal (FY26), a report said on Saturday.
Reciprocal tariffs: Global economists warn of impending US recession
New Delhi, April 5: Global brokerages and economists have warned an impending US recession after factoring in the impact of reciprocal tariffs announced by the Donald Trump administration.
Indian specialty chemicals sector's 7-8 pc revenue growth in FY26 to be volume-driven
New Delhi, March 31: The Indian specialty chemicals sector’s 7-8 per cent revenue growth next fiscal (FY26) will be largely volume-driven with realisations under pressure, according to a Crisil report.
India's GDP estimated to grow steadily at 6.5% in FY25 despite elevated global uncertainty
New Delhi, March 26: The Indian economy is estimated to achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds, the Monthly Economic Review by the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance said.
India is set to become the consumption capital of the world: Report
New Delhi, March 21: India is set to become the consumption capital of the world, outpacing major economies says a report by Angel One, Iconic asset.
India's GDP to expand by 6.7 pc in FY25, fastest growing in Asia-Pacific: S&P Global
New Delhi, March 20: An S&P Global Ratings report on Thursday projected India's GDP to expand by 6.7 per cent in fiscal 2025 (year ending March) -- the fastest growing economy in the Asia-Pacific region.
India's large domestic market to cushion blow from US tariff hike: Fitch
New Delhi, March 19: The large size of India's domestic market, which reduces reliance on external demand, is expected to insulate the country from the US tariff hike, with the economy expected to maintain a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY26, global ratings agency Fitch said on Wednesday.
India insulated from global trade war, says Fitch; revises GDP growth forecast to 6.5% in FY25-26
New Delhi March 19: Fitch Ratings has revised India's growth rate for FY25-26 to 6.5 per cent and to 6.3 per cent for FY26-27 in its March Edition of the Global Economic Outlook because of the US-imposed global trade war.
Fitch Ratings sharply cuts world growth forecast because of US imposed global trade war
New Delhi March 19: President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs have started a global trade war and it will reduce not only the growth of the United States (US) and the world but also push up inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts in US according to a report by Fitch Ratings.
Feb trade surplus suggests a sharp downside risk to India's current account deficit for FY25: Report
New Delhi, March 19: India's current account deficit is likely to see a sharp downside risk for FY25 GDP, as seen in the sharp positive surprise in February trade data according to a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI). India's trade deficit for February 2025 has seen a rare surplus of USD 14.05 billion.
Despite global turbulence Increased public spending is likely to drive economic activity in India: CareEdge
New Delhi, March 18: While corporate performance remains below par, key factors such as recovering rural demand, lower income tax burden, falling food inflation, expected rate cuts, and increased public spending are likely to drive economic activity in the coming months according to a report by CareEdge Ratings.
OECD sharply cuts South Korea's 2025 growth outlook to 1.5 pc
Seoul, March 17: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has sharply lowered its growth forecast for the South Korean economy this year to 1.5 per cent, the finance ministry said on Monday.
India's merchandise trade deficit will be under preasure in fiscal 26, services sector to provide respite: Crisil
New Delhi, March 16: India's merchandise trade deficit will be under pressure in the fiscal year 2026, as domestic private consumption is expected to remain strong, maintaining imports up, the rating agency Crisil said in its recent report.
RBI likely to cut rates next month amid easing inflation: HSBC
New Delhi, March 14: After the decline in retail inflation in February to 3.6 per cent, the March inflation print is also trending below the RBI's 4 per cent target which is likely to lead to another rate cut by the central bank next month, according to an HSBC Research report.
Despite correction, low volatility suggests peak panic still ahead: Nuvama on India stocks
New Delhi, March 14: Despite low volatility in the domestic stock markets over the past few months, investors are expected to tread cautiously going ahead, in the backdrop of the recent meltdown in the Indian equity market, according to the latest Nuvama report.
India's GDP growth to surpass 6.5 per cent in 2025-26: Moody's
New Delhi, March 13: India's GDP growth is expected to exceed 6.5 per cent during 2025-26 -- on the back of higher government capex and increase in consumption due to the reduction in income tax and the RBI's cut in interest rates, according to a Moody's report.
India set to become World's most sought-after consumer market: Morgan Stanley
New Delhi, March 13: India is poised to become the world's most sought-after consumer market while undergoing a significant energy transition, rising credit-to-GDP ratio, and expanding manufacturing sector, according to Morgan Stanley's latest report.
RBI may go for 75 bps rate cut this fiscal, 25 bps each in April, June and October 2025: Report
New Delhi, March 13: SBI research ecowrap predicts 75 basis points rate cut this fiscal. Experts believe that CPI inflation will be 3.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY25 and will average at 4.7 per cent for the entire year.
Trump tariffs to drag down S. Korean economic growth, inflation: BOK
Seoul, March 13: US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff scheme is expected to increase downside pressure on South Korea's economic growth and inflation, though its impact on the local financial market would be limited, the central bank said on Thursday.
GDP Growth of US economy to slow down gradually to 1.6% by 2027 from 2.8% now: S&P Global
Washington, DC, March 12: The GDP growth of the US economy is expected to slow down gradually over the next three years, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Too early to predict global recession, India may not be impacted much: Economists
New Delhi, March 11: There is growing concern that the global economy may be heading toward a slowdown, with some experts even warning about the possibility of a recession.
India's capital expenditure growth likely to moderate to single digits: SBI MF Report
New Delhi, March 11: India's capital expenditure (capex) growth is expected to moderate to single digits over the next two years after witnessing strong growth in recent years, according to a report by SBI Mutual Fund.
Investments likely to outperform Consumption in FY26: SBI MF Report
New Delhi, March 10: Investments in India are expected to outpace consumption in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), according to a report by SBI Mutual Fund.
India to grow 6.5% in fiscal 2026 despite challenges: Crisil Intelligence
New Delhi, March 6: India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026 despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions, said Crisil Intelligence in a report on Thursday.
Resilient India to see 6.5 pc in fiscal 2026 despite challenges: Crisil
New Delhi, March 6: India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026, despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions, a Crisil report said on Thursday.