Key Points
NASA reduces asteroid impact probability from 3.1% to 0.28%
Asteroid unlikely to cause significant Earth or Moon damage
Atmosphere acts as natural protective shield against smaller asteroids
The asteroid discovered in December 2024, has been dubbed as the large 'city-killer'. Scientists have reported its enhanced chances of hitting Earth in December 2032.
"The mass of that asteroid is not very high as compared to Earth. So as far as Earth as a whole is concerned, the impact of the asteroid hitting Earth would be negligible," Astrophysicist Professor Varun Bhalerao from IIT Bombay told IANS. But, if the asteroid blows up in the atmosphere, it can create some explosion which will damage a lot of things, the expert noted.
Initially, NASA estimates showed it had a 3.1 per cent chance of striking Earth in 2032. However, recent observations have reduced this risk to just 0.28 per cent.
Confirming this, NASA in a post shared on social media platform X said: "New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28 per cent. Monitoring continues."
"The possibility that 2024 YR4 could impact the Earth in 2032 is really remote. We know that disaster is going to come close to the Earth in 2032 to within one and a half times the distance to the moon as of today," said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in a post on X.
"The probability of impact is only 0.3 per cent we're going to keep updating this impact probability as we collect additional tracking data," he added, stating that the probability might go down to zero.
Bhalerao explained that scientists measure the orbit of the asteroid to understand how it can impact Earth.
"Earth is a heavy body, so it keeps moving but for asteroids, based on what other objects they pass by, it will make very small deflections in their path. While uncertainty is always there, as you get closer and closer to the mark, the uncertainty decreases, because now you can update based on your data," the Astrophysicist said.
Amid reports that the Moon can now be a possible target, Bhalerao said "The probability of hitting the moon is actually a bit smaller, because Moon is physically smaller, and the asteroid is not massive enough to do something like that".
"The chance of impact with the Moon is about 1 per cent," added NASA.
So what are the odds of other asteroids hitting the Earth?
"Every time you see a meteor shower, it is asteroid hitting the earth, except they burn up in the atmosphere. They look beautiful. We all enjoy the sight, so our atmosphere is kind of working like a shield to protect us from these things," Bhalerao said.
"Now, no matter how good your shield is, if something is bigger, it can penetrate the shield. And as you go to larger and larger sizes, something the size of a kilometer or so probably is enough to wipe out all life on Earth. Something like that probably killed the dinosaurs, as far as our best understanding goes," he said, emphasising the need to keep monitoring.
