Potential upside of Nifty and Sensex indicates robust outlook in FY26: Report

IANS March 31, 2025 149 views

The Indian stock market shows promising potential for fiscal year 2026, with benchmark indices like Nifty and Sensex expected to deliver 8-12% returns. Driven by robust corporate earnings, infrastructure investments, and emerging sectors like religious and medical tourism, the market outlook remains optimistic. Domestic companies are well-positioned to navigate global economic challenges. Experts anticipate continued growth across rural and urban markets, supported by strong capex cycles and sectoral expansions.

"Nifty and Sensex's potential upside indicates a robust outlook" - Robin Arya, GoalFi Founder
Bengaluru, March 31: The benchmark index Nifty is expected to post a 8–10 per cent annualised return in the next fiscal (FY26) while Sensex is projected to give 8–12 per cent return, according to a new report.

Key Points

1

Benchmark indices projected 8-10% annualized returns

2

Corporate earnings expected 12-15% growth

3

Rural and urban demand showing positive trajectory

4

Infrastructure and tourism sectors set for significant expansion

The domestic-focused companies are well positioned to mitigate risks like US tariff hikes or commodity price inflation.

Large cap private banks are expected to see a credit growth of 14–16 per cent in FY26. The benchmark indices have gained around 7 per cent in FY25, according to the report by GoalFi, a smallcase manager.

The report anticipates a growth of 12–16 per cent from current levels by March 2026, translating to a potential range of 8–10 per cent annualised return over the next 12 months from March 25, 2025.

These estimates assume a 12–15 per cent corporate earnings growth rate and a forward PE multiple of 19–21x FY26 earnings. The projected upside for Sensex is 14–18 per cent, implying an 8–12 per cent annualised return over the same period.

According to Robin Arya, Founder and CEO, GoalFi, Nifty and Sensex’s potential upside indicates a robust outlook, driven by robust earnings growth.

A combination of global and local factors, return of FII flows will help post higher growth, he said.

Religious tourism is a big thing to watch out for. There are over 300 million domestic pilgrims annually (pre-COVID), this is expected to rise by 10–12 per cent.

Medical tourism segment is projected to grow at 18–20 per cent CAGR, reaching a $13–15 billion market by 2026.

Infrastructure investments (100 new airports by 2030, 8–10 per cent annual road expansion) enhance connectivity, thereby providing broader support, said the report.

The rural demand is expected to be up 5–7 per cent YoY and the urban spending will see a rise of 6–8 per cent.

The capex cycle will see a big rise with, private capex projected to rise 12–14 per cent YoY. The government infra spend is expected at Rs 11-12 lakh crore.

The report expects a 15–20 per cent revenue growth across hospitality, travel, and infra in the tourism sector.

—IANS

Tags:
Nifty Sensex Indian Stock Market GoalFi Robin Arya Market Outlook FY26 Forecast
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