Pakistan: Wheat crops at risk as dams approaching dead levels

In a letter to irrigation secretaries, Irsa's Director of Regulation, Khalid Idrees Rana, informed the provinces that both reservoirs were nearing depletion. He stated that operating the reservoirs at or around dead levels could lead to significant water shortages.

According to Irsa's latest data, Tarbela Dam has only 73,000 acre-feet of water remaining. Its level is 1,409 feet, just nine feet above the dead level of 1,400 feet. The dam, which has a maximum storage capacity of 1,550 feet, was receiving 17,000 cusecs of water inflow against an outflow of 20,000 cusecs.

Meanwhile, the Mangla Dam had a live storage of 235,000 acre-feet and a level of 1,088 feet, just 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet. The Dawn reported that it was receiving 16,400 cusecs of inflow while releasing 18,000 cusecs.

According to Dawn, Irsa informed the provinces that daily discharge data clearly indicated the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs could reach their dead levels in the coming days. Irsa had anticipated this outcome at the beginning of the Rabi season on October 2, 2024, when it projected that the storage would hit dead level within the first 10 days of March 2025.

While the depletion of reservoirs to dead levels is a regular occurrence, the timing of this shortage is critical. The Dawn reported that the wheat crop, already impacted by lower-than-expected sowing due to shifting government policies, is in its crucial final watering stage and should be ready for harvest by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, the water regulator expressed hope that upcoming rain spells would help improve the system. It has urged the provinces to implement necessary precautionary measures to prevent any adverse situations.