New study reveals accelerated warming trend on Tibetan Plateau

IANS April 11, 2025 204 views

Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences have uncovered alarming predictions about the Tibetan Plateau's warming trajectory over the next decade. Using advanced decadal climate prediction techniques, researchers forecast a temperature rise 1.75 times faster than recent observations, potentially reducing glacier volumes by 1.4 percent. The study underscores significant implications for water security and ecological stability across Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for comprehensive climate mitigation strategies in one of the world's most sensitive environmental regions.

"The region's annual mean temperature will rise by 0.98 degrees Celsius" - Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Beijing, April 11: Chinese researchers have revealed that the Tibetan Plateau is expected to experience accelerated warming in the next 10 years, according to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Key Points

1

Tibetan Plateau temperatures expected to rise 1.75 times faster than recent years

2

Glacier volume projected to decrease by 1.4 percent

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Decadal climate prediction reveals significant regional warming trends

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Climate variability influences temperature predictions

While traditional climate projections can highlight long-term trends, the temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau over the next decade remain highly uncertain due to substantial internal climate variability.

However, this new study utilizing decadal climate prediction -- an emerging tool that combines the initial state of the climate system with external forcing -- suggests improved accuracy in regional climate forecasts.

The researchers from the IAP analysed advanced international decadal prediction systems to assess the predictability of temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Their findings indicate that between 2025 and 2032, the region's annual mean temperature will rise by 0.98 degrees Celsius compared to the 1991-2020 baseline. This warming rate is 1.75 times faster than the observed increase from 2016 to 2023.

Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the researchers simulated the impact of accelerated warming on the Tibetan Plateau glaciers. The results suggest that the warming is projected to reduce glacier volume by approximately 1.4 perc ent, leading to faster melt rates that threaten water security for hundreds of millions across Asia, Xinhua news agency reported. This dramatic loss also risks destabilising regional ecological balance and could trigger far-reaching climatic consequences globally.

The study also highlights that the decadal predictability of Tibetan Plateau temperatures is influenced not only by external factors like greenhouse gas concentrations but also by internal climate variability, particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).

The study was published in the journal Science Bulletin.

Reader Comments

S
Sarah K.
This is really concerning news. The Tibetan Plateau is so ecologically important - we can't afford to lose those glaciers. 😟 I hope governments are paying attention to these findings.
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Raj P.
Interesting study, but I wonder if the sample size is large enough? The time period seems quite short for climate predictions. Still, the methodology using decadal climate prediction sounds promising.
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Liam T.
The water security implications are terrifying. Hundreds of millions depend on those glaciers. We need immediate action, not just more studies telling us what we already know.
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Aisha M.
The science behind this is fascinating! Combining initial climate states with external forcing for better predictions - that's real innovation. Kudos to the researchers for advancing our understanding.
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James W.
While the findings are important, I wish the article explained more about what concrete actions can be taken. Research is great, but we need solutions. Maybe a follow-up piece?
M
Ming L.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation connection is interesting. Climate systems are so interconnected - what happens in Tibet affects us all. We're really in this together. 🌍

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Tags:
Climate Change Tibetan Plateau Global Warming Glacier Melt Chinese Research Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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