Market Outlook: RBI MPC, CPI, tariffs and global economic data key triggers for next week

IANS April 6, 2025 262 views

The Indian stock market faced significant turbulence this week, driven by escalating global trade tensions and potential economic shifts. RBI's upcoming Monetary Policy Committee decision and US reciprocal tariffs are expected to be key market influencers. Foreign Institutional Investors aggressively sold stocks, causing the Sensex and Nifty to decline sharply. Experts recommend caution and suggest watching critical support and resistance levels in the coming week.

"Nifty becomes a sell-on-rise market" - Puneet Singhania, Master Trust Group
Market Outlook: RBI MPC, CPI, tariffs and global economic data key triggers for next week
Mumbai, April 6: The equity market outlook for the next week will be guided by several domestic and international factors, such as RBI MPC, India's CPI (March), industrial production data, any update on US reciprocal tariff and other global economic data.

Key Points

1

RBI MPC decision expected to impact market outlook

2

US reciprocal tariffs create global trade tension

3

Foreign investors pull out Rs 13,730 crore from market

4

IT and Metal stocks suffer significant losses

On the domestic level, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC) decision announcement is scheduled for release on April 9, which will provide key insights into the Reserve Bank's policy stance and India's economic outlook.

Further, India's CPI (March) data and Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released on April 11.

On the global level, the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, US CPI data and UK GDP data are scheduled for release in the next week.

Indian benchmark indices ended the week sharply lower, snapping a two-week winning streak, as escalating global trade tensions rattled investor sentiment. The Sensex was down 2.65 per cent at 75,364.69, and the Nifty was down 2.61 per cent at 22,904.45.

On the sectoral front, heavy selling was witnessed in IT and Metal stocks, which emerged as the worst performers, plunging 9.15 per cent and 7.46 per cent, respectively. FMCG was the only sector to post gains, rising a modest 0.45 per cent, indicating defensive buying amid market volatility.

The sell-off was primarily triggered by US President Donald Trump's decision to impose steep reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including a 27 per cent levy on select Indian goods.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned aggressive sellers, pulling out approximately Rs 13,730 crore from the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided some support with net inflows of around Rs 5,632 crore.

Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said, "Nifty 50 has slipped to a two-week low, weighed down by rising fears of a global trade war and recession, which have created a wave of negative sentiment."

"Key support levels to watch are 22,300 and 22,000. On the upside, 22,800 now acts as a strong resistance. In this environment, Nifty becomes a sell-on-rise market, and traders are advised to remain cautious and avoid aggressive long positions until stability returns," he added.

Reader Comments

R
Rahul K.
The RBI MPC decision will be crucial this time. With inflation still above target, I don't think we'll see any rate cuts yet. The market seems to be pricing that in already though. 🤔
P
Priya M.
Those tariff numbers are brutal! 27% on Indian goods? No wonder the markets reacted so strongly. Hoping for some diplomatic resolution soon.
A
Amit S.
Interesting to see FMCG being the only sector in green. When markets tumble, people still need their daily essentials I guess. Might be a good defensive play for volatile times.
S
Sunita R.
The article could have explained more about how the US FOMC minutes might impact Indian markets. The global connections are important but often overlooked in local analysis.
V
Vikram J.
That 13,730 crore FII outflow is scary! But good to see DIIs stepping in. Shows domestic investors are gaining confidence in our markets 💪
N
Neha P.
The IT sector getting hammered makes sense with global uncertainty, but surprised at metals falling so much too. Maybe time to look for some bargains if this continues?

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Tags:
Indian Stock Market RBI MPC US Tariffs Market Volatility Sensex Nifty Economic Data
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