Key Points
E-commerce to dominate 55-60% of express parcels by 2030
Quick commerce growing at 33-50% CAGR
Traditional couriers slowing to 7% growth
Hyperlocal and C2C shipments expanding rapidly
This is likely to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) growth of 19-23 per cent from FY2024's scale of 8-9 billion shipments.
In the current fiscal (FY25), the market is estimated to reach 10-11 billion shipments, fuelled by the expanding e-commerce sector, especially non-horizontals and the rise of hyperlocal/quick commerce, according to the report by Redseer Strategy Consultants.
E-commerce (not including hyperlocal) accounted for more than 50 per cent of the express parcel market in FY2025, with approximately 4.8-5.5 billion shipments. This is expected to grow to 15-16 billion shipments by FY 2030, contributing to 55-60 per cent of the express parcel market by that time.
The report mentioned that India's express parcel market is shifting from traditional couriers to e-commerce and hyperlocal shipments, driven by digital adoption, demographic shifts and urbanisation.
"People now expect faster, more convenient deliveries, which is fuelling a surge in e-commerce and hyperlocal shipments while traditional parcels grow much more slowly," said Mrigank Gutgutia, Partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants.
With express parcel volumes set to grow significantly between FY20-30 powered by the e-commerce surge, express logistics players need to realign their strategies to stay ahead and make the most of the fast growing e-commerce and hyperlocal opportunity landscape, he added.
Quick commerce emerged as the fastest-growing segment, contributing to 7-10 per cent of the overall express parcel market in FY2024 and FY2025. It is expected to expand at a 33-50 per cent CAGR from FY2024 to FY2030, according to the report.
Online food ordering, pharmacy deliveries, and hyperlocal C2C shipments are expected to make up 13 per cent of total shipments volume by FY 2030 but with a slower overall growth rate compared to quick commerce, it added.
The traditional couriers segment accounted for 17 per cent of the express parcel market in FY2025 (2 billion parcels) and is projected to grow at 7 per cent CAGR till FY 2030.
