India's export in 2025 to US may decline by 6.41%, as a result of the Trump tariffs: GTRI

The GTRI report is based on the evaluation of sector-specific exposure, changes in tariff rates, and competitive dynamics involving key players like China, Mexico, and Canada.

The research also highlights sectors where India may gain or lose ground, offering a nuanced picture of the challenges and opportunities emerging from the new U.S. tariff regime.

The tariffs are likely to give a mild blow to India's merchandise exports to the US. In 2024, India exported USD 89.81 billion worth of goods to the U.S, but this could decline by approximately USD 5.76 billion, a drop of 6.41 per cent, as a result of the new trade measures in 2025.

GTRI study says several key product groups are likely to see reduced exports. Exports of fish and crustaceans may fall by 20.2 per cent, iron or steel articles by 18.0 per cent, and diamonds, gold, and related products by 15.3 per cent.

Vehicle and auto parts exports are projected to drop by 12.1 per cent, electrical, telecom, and electronic products may decline by 12.0 per cent. Other categories such as plastics articles exports to the US may fall by 9.4 per cent, carpets by 6.3 per cent, petroleum products by 5.2 per cent, organic chemicals by 2.2% per cent, and machinery by 2 per cent said GTRI research.

However, the report also said that there are pockets of opportunity amid the disruption for India's exports to the US.

India could see modest gains in exports in sectors where the U.S. has raised higher tariffs on competing countries.

Textile exports may go up by 4.2 per cent, apparel by 3.2 per cent, ceramic products by 3.1 per cent, albuminoidal substances, glues, and enzymes by 3 per cent, inorganic chemicals by 3 per cent, and pharmaceuticals by 2.1 per cent.

The report noted that while the overall effect of the new tariffs points toward a decline in trade, India's competitive position in select product segments may help cushion some of the losses.