Key Points
India's economic growth expected between 6.3-6.8% in FY26
Formal employment sector shows significant expansion
Strong foreign exchange reserves supporting economic stability
Potential challenges from global uncertainties and weather conditions
The survey highlights that the country's economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by a stable external account, fiscal consolidation, and private consumption.
It noted that the government plans to strengthen long-term industrial growth by focusing on research and development (R&D), micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and capital goods. These measures aim to enhance productivity, innovation, and global competitiveness.
It said "the fundamentals of the domestic economy remain robust, with a strong external account, calibrated fiscal consolidation and stable private consumption. On balance of these considerations, we expect that the growth in FY26 would be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent".
The survey noted that food inflation is expected to ease in Q4 FY25 due to the seasonal decline in vegetable prices and the arrival of the Kharif harvest. A good Rabi production is also expected to help keep food prices in check in the first half of FY26. However, adverse weather conditions and rising international agricultural prices pose risks to inflation.
Meanwhile, global energy and commodity prices have softened, making the core inflation outlook stable. However, uncertainties in the global political and economic environment remain a challenge.
The survey also added that India's foreign exchange reserves remain strong, covering 90 per cent of external debt and providing an import cover of over ten months. The reserves increased from USD 616.7 billion in January 2024 to USD 704.9 billion in September 2024 before moderating to USD 634.6 billion as of January 3, 2025. The stability in capital flows has played a key role in supporting India's external strength.
The survey also highlighted significant growth in the formal employment sector. Net Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) subscriptions have more than doubled from 61 lakh in FY19 to 131 lakh in FY24.
It said "The formal sector in India has seen significant growth, with net Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) subscriptions more than doubling from 61 lakh in FY19 to 131 lakh in FY24".
The Economic Survey presents a positive outlook for India's economic growth in FY26, backed by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, rising formal employment, and stable external reserves.
However, risks such as global uncertainties, adverse weather events, and international price fluctuations remain key challenges for the economy in the coming year.
