Earthquake crisis too big to ignore, world must not fail Myanmar

Beyond the immediate devastation, this earthquake has amplified Myanmar's already precarious situation. Even before the disaster, Myanmar was home to one of the world's deadliest conflicts. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), the scale of violence in Myanmar conflicts had surpassed deadly Ukraine, large diffuse areas of Palestine, and dangerous gang wars in Mexico.

Over 200 non-state armed groups are engaged in territorial battles, funding their operations through illicit trade, black markets, and cyber scams. The country is now the world's largest producer of heroin and the primary supplier of synthetic drugs.

The ongoing conflict has already destabilised the region, prompting neighbouring countries to push for containment strategies. Now, with this earthquake, Myanmar is at risk of losing what little control it had left over these non-traditional security threats.

Meanwhile, the scale of the humanitarian crisis is staggering. Within 72 hours, the death toll in Mandalay alone surpassed 3,000. Essential infrastructure — transport networks, communication systems, and public utilities — has been crippled, severely hampering search-and-rescue operations. As one of the 10 most disaster-prone countries in the world, Myanmar has long been vulnerable to natural calamities. Its vulnerability risk score surpasses that of neighbours — Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.

Yet, Myanmar remains the least prepared among them to deal with large-scale emergencies.

Myanmar has endured devastating disasters before. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami took 61 lives in the country and 2015 floods wiped out 3.7 per cent of the country's GDP in that year. In between the two, Cyclone Nargis devastated the Ayeyarwady Delta in 2008, killing nearly 200,000 people and inflicting $4 billion in damages.

ASEAN, under the leadership of the late Surin Pitsuwan, facilitated the establishment of the Tripartite Core Group (TCG), bringing Myanmar, ASEAN, and the UN together for a coordinated humanitarian response. This initiative not only helped Myanmar recover but also set the stage for its reintegration into the international community.

By 2010, Myanmar's period of political and economic isolation was beginning to thaw, leading to rapid economic growth and reform efforts in the following decade. The Nargis response serves as a reminder that effective disaster management is not just about aid — it is about dialogue, change and transformation.

In the wake of the earthquake, Myanmar's neighbours have stepped up. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Xi Jinping of China personally reached out to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, pledging assistance. Teams from India, China, Singapore, Thailand, and other nations have arrived and already rescued dozens of survivors trapped beneath collapsed buildings.

Their contributions are vital, as Myanmar lacks both the expertise and equipment to execute effective search-and-rescue operations. In the coming weeks, it would be a defining moment for Myanmar as the country will enter more difficult phases of relief and recovery operations.

The BIMSTEC summit, along with visits from ASEAN foreign ministers, could provide a crucial platform for advising and assisting Myanmar in addressing the following critical and pressing challenges for recovery and renewal.

First, conditionality on humanitarian aid delivery poses a significant challenge for the international community, as it navigates the complex political landscape in Myanmar. The earthquake primarily devastated military-controlled regions as well as administrative and commercial capitals previously spared from conflict, and there is already an alarming spread of misinformation and disinformation.

The destruction of state-run TV stations, printing houses, and underground internet cables has left Myanmar in a public information blackout. However, this is not the time to politicize humanitarian relief nor setting the conditions on delivery. The priority must be the victims and their families, with aid delivered based on humanitarian principles, not political agendas. The swift response from both near and far has been reassuring, but it must be sustained through the critical phases of relief and recovery.

Second, while the outpouring of rescue and medical assistance has been heartening, Myanmar must prepare for the difficult transition from emergency response to long-term reconstruction. Unlike cyclones and floods, which predominantly impact rural areas, earthquakes devastate densely populated urban centers, making recovery more complex, traumatic, and expensive.

The reconstruction of cities and towns will be time-consuming and frustrating, potentially exacerbating existing political and social tensions. The 2010 Haiti earthquake serves as a cautionary tale — despite billions of dollars pledged, a fraction reached Haiti directly, while corruption and mismanagement stalled recovery. Myanmar must learn from these failures.

To prevent duplication and waste as well as to avoid economic crisis, Myanmar also needs an effective, centralized reconstruction authority in the wake of overlapping donor responses. This is the third but most important challenge.

While Myanmar has a natural disaster management law and an inter-ministerial committee, these mechanisms are insufficient for handling a catastrophe of this scale. Nepal's response to its 2015 earthquake provides a useful model — its National Reconstruction Authority functioned as a one-stop service for coordinating international aid, managing logistics, and overseeing reconstruction efforts. Myanmar has the capacity and experience to establish a similar body, but this requires political will from all parties to commit effective resource mobilization and efficient and equitable allocation.

Finally, restoring trust between the state and society is crucial. During Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar's civil society organisations played a crucial role in coordinating relief efforts and making it participatory. However, years of armed conflict have sidelined civil society's role, including local NGOs. Buddhist monks, whose schools and monasteries are heavily concentrated in Mandalay and Sagaing, could play a pivotal role in rebuilding trust and organising inclusive reconstruction efforts.

Additionally, the private sector must also involve itself in managing economic recovery, as most property losses are private assets. The Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry can take a proactive role in shaping reconstruction strategies, bridging the gap between civil society and the government as well as international recovery support.

The world must not fail Myanmar as Syria was left to fall after its devastating earthquake two years ago. This is a defining moment — not only to save lives but to lay the foundation for lasting recovery and change. Myanmar is in the ICU. It is up to our neighbours and the international community to provide the life support needed to ensure its survival and renewal.

(Zaw Oo has worked as a humanitarian worker during Indian Ocean Tsunami and Cyclone Nargis disasters. He lives in Myanmar and heads the Centre for Economic and Social Development, an independent think-tank. Views expressed are personal)