Key Points
Brent crude prices expected to decline from USD 80 to USD 74 per barrel
Geopolitical tensions and US energy policy to impact oil markets
Non-OPEC supply projected to exceed global demand
In the base-case expectations, ICICI Bank sees Brent crude prices trading in the USD 75 per barrel to USD 85 per cent barrel range over 1H2025 and in the USD 65 per barrel to USD 75 per barrel range in 2H2025 assuming a demand slowdown from China kicks in.
For 2025, it sees Brent Crude prices trading in the USD 74 per barrel range that compared with USD 80 per barrel recorded in 2024
Over the last month, global crude oil prices have rallied sharply responding to seasonal pick-up in demand and actions taken by the outgoing Biden administration.
Brent crude prices have rallied sharply by 5 per cent over 2025 driven by two sets of factors.
In particular, the measures taken to curtail Russian oil exports have worked to drive prices higher.
"Global supply that will be led by non-OPEC is expected to outstrip demand ensuring that physical markets swing from a net supply deficit that was visible in 2024 to a surplus in 2025. The net result will be a downside bias in global crude oil prices," the report read.
That said, however, the path for crude prices is unlikely to be linear given the prevailing geo-political environment particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine war.
US President Donald Trump laid out an aggressive plan to maximize oil and gas production, including filling the strategic reserves. Besides, he declared a national energy emergency, besides withdrew from the international pact to fight climate change.
Soon after assuming the presidency, addressing virtually at the World Economic Forum Davos, Trump called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries to lower oil prices.
