Key Points
Sensex surges 290 points on mixed global economic signals
US Fed policy and Trump tariffs key market drivers
Banking and tech stocks show divergent performance
Gold briefly touches USD 3,000 mark
The BSE Sensex surged 290.59 points, opening at 74,138.49, while the NSE Nifty climbed 82.35 points to begin the session at 22,479.55.
Among Nifty-listed companies, 38 stocks advanced while 12 saw declines. IndusInd Bank, SBI Life, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, and Larsen & Toubro emerged as the top gainers, while Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro, BPCL, and Britannia were among the worst performers in early trade.
The positive opening comes amid mixed global cues. Banking and market expert Ajay Bagga noted that China announced measures to stimulate domestic consumption, though the response to these actions has been lukewarm. However, Chinese industrial growth and retail sales data for the first two months of 2025 exceeded estimates, providing some optimism to Asian markets.
Bagga highlighted that the broader economic picture remains uncertain, with a possible slowdown in the US economy and fluctuating policies under "Trump 2.0."
He noted, "The US Fed FOMC meet will be the key policy meeting this week. We expect the Fed to remain on hold, citing the uncertainty around Trump 2.0 policy. The key statement to watch from a data dependent Fed will be if it sees the balance shifting to shoring up slowing growth rather than containing inflation. Fed futures are pointing to 3 more rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 and markets will be watching the Fedspeak for any signals towards this."
One major concern looming over global trade is the upcoming Reciprocal Tariffs announcement by Donald Trump on April 2nd. If India manages to negotiate postponement or exemption on key export items, markets could react positively.
However, Bagga warned, "Expect volatility leading up to April 2nd. While FPI sales intensity has been waning, past trends suggest that this might not necessarily indicate stability."
In the commodities market, gold briefly crossed the USD 3,000 mark before settling slightly lower. Oil prices saw an uptick following U.S. airstrikes on Yemen-based Houthi strongholds, while metals markets are closely monitoring China's stimulus policies.
Despite the positive start, analysts advise caution due to the prevailing global policy uncertainty. With the Federal Reserve meeting this week and upcoming tariff announcements, market movements are expected to remain volatile.
Investors will be keeping a close eye on developments in U.S. trade policies and potential economic slowdowns, which could impact foreign investments in India. However, India's strong FII inflows in FY24 and ongoing free trade negotiations with the UK, Canada, and the EU suggest long-term resilience in the country's economic outlook.
