New Delhi, November 12
The Indian rupee is on a declining trend over last few months against US dollar. At the time of filing this report rupee was trading at 84.41 against the US dollar, very close to its record low of 84.48 as economic and geopolitical pressures weigh on the currency.
This level, indicative of persistent challenges for the rupee, reflects an ongoing struggle against strong dollar demand, high crude oil prices, and considerable foreign institutional outflows.
Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, highlighted the rupee's downward trajectory over the past few months, noting its recent record low of 84.48 against the dollar.
"The currency has been pressured by substantial foreign institutional outflows, rising crude oil costs, and heightened dollar demand," said Kedia. "Geopolitical tensions and expectations for a tighter US monetary policy have compounded these challenges."
He added that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively intervening to manage volatility, which has provided some stability, though the rupee is expected to remain within a range of 84.05-84.70 in the near term. He identified a key support level at 83.90 and a resistance level at 84.70.
Jateen Trivedi, Vice President and Research Analyst for Commodities and Currency at LKP Securities, observed that the rupee has traded relatively flat near 84.41, as the dollar index stayed neutral with limited foreign institutional selling at the start of the week.
A stronger dollar has heightened pressure on emerging market currencies, particularly the Indian rupee.
India's rupee has faced significant depreciation in recent months as tightening US monetary policy, global volatility, and geopolitical events challenge emerging market currencies.
Although the RBI has intervened to stabilize the currency, experts believe further measures might be needed if the dollar's rally continues unchecked.
It is also to be noted that depreciation of Indian rupee as compared with the depreciation levels of developed nation currencies like Euro, pound sterling or Chinese Yuan is much less.