New Delhi, Nov 5
India is a strong economy -- on its way to becoming the third-largest one in the world -- and the US election results may affect foreign inflows in the short term but it will not have any long-term impact for the country's benchmark indices, industry and market experts said on Tuesday.
If Republican Donald Trump comes back to power in the US, the global stock markets, including India, could see an initial rally and Trump's victory might also set the stage for a renewed US dominance in global markets, likely driving up bond yields, particularly for the 10-year Treasury, Choice Broking Assistant Vice President, Jathin Kaithavalappil, told IANS.
On the US election's impact on the Indian stock markets, PHDCCI Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General, Dr SP Sharma, said that relations between America and India have been very cordial and whosoever wins, the Indian economy will continue its march towards its goal to become a Viksit Bharat by 2047.
According to experts, on the sectoral front, a Trump victory may encourage the "China+1" strategy, which could benefit Indian sectors like auto ancillaries, though Indian companies may need to invest in local US operations to take full advantage.
"Furthermore, Trump's energy policies could lead to lower global oil prices, which would benefit India," said Kaithavalappil.
However, Trump's 'America First' policy could impact the Indian IT sector. In his previous term, he introduced policies that restricted H-1B visas, which many Indian IT professionals rely on to work in the US.
"If similar restrictions return, it could disrupt Indian IT firms," Kaithavalappil told IANS.
If Harris wins, the US stock market may see minimal immediate impact since her policies are expected to align closely with those of the current administration, said experts.
A Democratic win could prompt the RBI to consider rate cuts if the US Federal Reserve adopts an accommodative stance. This would benefit NBFCs that rely on lower interest rates, said Kaithavalappil.
According to SKI Capital Managing Director Narinder Wadhwa, during the last four to five elections in America, there has been pressure on the markets globally.
"Today, there has been a good recovery in the Indian stock market. The global markets generally remain down till the US election results are announced. According to the trends and the opinions that are coming, Trump's victory seems a little positive. It will be very good for the Indian economy," Wadhwa told IANS.