New Delhi, Sep 8
Months after the French parliamentary elections ended with none of the three divergent political fronts of the far-right, centrists, and the left even close to a majority, President Emmanuel Macron has appointed right-wing politician Michael Barnier as Prime Minister but will his government be able to obtain approval and end the country's crisis of polarisation?
And what does it mean for Macron himself, as he reaches the midpoint of his second and final term in the Elysee Palace?
The first question can be answered with a yes - to some extent.
Going by preliminary reactions, Republicans (LR) party leader Barnier, 73, the oldest to take over as France's Prime Minister (in the Fifth Republic) - and co-incidentally succeeding post's youngest holder Gabriel Attal, 34 - might sail through the confidence vote.
While Macron's Ensemble alliance has 160 members in the 577-member Assembly, and the LR bloc - one faction of which is with the Nationally Rally - is at the fourth spot with 47 (including allies), Barnier will also gain the support of 142 members of the far-right National Rally, which has announced it will give him a chance. This takes him comfortably beyond the required threshold of 289.
After Barnier was named to the post, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen announced conditional support, saying he fulfils their initial criterion of someone who is "respectful of the different political forces" and has never spoken ill of her party or kept it at an arms' length, like some other political outfits.
That Barnier, the EU's former chief Brexit negotiator with the UK government between 2016 and 2019, had sought to contest against Macron in the 2022 Presidential polls on a campaign plank of limiting immigration is another plus point for him in the eyes of the National Rally. He, however, had been unable to contest them as his party did not nominate him.
Barnier was conciliatory in his initial remarks, saying that he is open to forming a government with politicians across the political spectrum, including the left.
This did not mollify the left-wing New Popular Front, smarting after Macron, who had refused to appoint their candidate, 37-year-old bureaucrat Lucie Castets, as Prime Minister despite their being the largest bloc in the house (180). What was more galling for them was that Barnier's appointment was announced shortly on Thursday after they made a renewed appeal to Macron for the appointment of Castets.
Front members were caustic in their response as they announced that they would oppose Barnier.
The Socialists said that Barnier has "neither political legitimacy nor republican legitimacy" and party leader Olivier Faure deplored the appointment of a Prime Minister from a party which was a distant fourth in the electoral race. The Socialists also noted that Barnier's party also smugly sat out the tacit marriage of convenience between the Centrists and the Left in the second round of polls that stopped the NR in its tracks after its strong showing in the first round.
Hard-left France Unbowed founder Jean-Luc Melenchon did not mince words as he said that the "election has been stolen from the French".
In her reaction, Castets said: "We have a Prime Minister completely dependent on National Rally."
The Left held protests in Paris and across the country on Sunday to protest the appointment and Melenchon joined the agitation in the capital, giving a speech on the back of a float bearing the slogan: "For democracy, stop Macron's coup". However, the Socialists, one of the four constituents of the front, did not participate.
The left's reaction offers an answer to the second question. The fact that the far right and left, encompassing all shades of opinion, are among the top three parties in the country makes clear that polarised politics is here to stay unless centrists, by some miracle, succeed in winning back overwhelming support.
And finally, Macron's image after a year of setbacks. With a series of misguided decisions beginning with calling a snap election as the National Rally made major gains in the European Parliament elections, he has ended up antagonising both the left and the right while not being able to keep both out of power.
Striking a tactical alliance with the Left to keep out the National Rally and then shortchanging it by rejecting its claim to form a government, and then, appointing someone who will be dependent on the National Rally for survival is a stunning reversal of stand that does not reflect very positively.
On the other hand, the National Rally is not going to forget how it was kept out of power and will now make the most of its position as kingmaker.
Like his country, Macron ends up hemmed in between two extremes.
(Vikas Datta can be contacted atvikas.d@ians.in)