Addis Ababa, July 14
As Africa's population crosses the 1.5 billion mark and the demographic window is opening, social policy experts at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) stressed that getting the dividend requires more time and stronger efforts.
The latest call followed the publication of the World Population Prospects and Forecast that was released by the United Nations on World Population Day, which is annually observed on July 11, Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday.
Noting that the world's population has witnessed tremendous growth in the last six decades, in which the global population was around three billion in 1960, the report indicated that in just two decades (by 1982), it had surpassed five billion and since November 2022 there are more than eight billion people in the world.
Social policy experts at the UNECA, in a situation analysis report on Africa's population prospects issued on Friday, said the African continent has been at the centre of the global population growth, as the continent accounts for the largest relative growth, with its population expanding from 283 million in 1960 to more than 1.5 billion in 2024, a more than five-fold increase. And it is projected to increase by 950 million and touch 2.5 billion by 2050.
The growing population will increase Africa's share of the world's population from 10 per cent in 1960 to 28 per cent by 2050. Globally, more than one in four people will be African in 2050, from one in 10 in 1960, it was noted.
According to the publication, among the reasons for Africa's rapid population growth is the declining rate of infant mortality across Africa. Data from the UNECA show that infant mortality has declined from 145 per 1,000 children born in 1960 to 38 per 1,000 children born in 2024. As a result, average life expectancy in Africa increased from 43 years to 66 years during the reported period and is projected to increase to 70 years by 2050.
In 1960, on average a woman in Africa had 6.6 children over her lifetime. This has progressively reduced to 3.8 in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 2.6 by 2050. Overall, and compared to other regions of the world, fertility rates in Africa remain high and are declining only gradually.
The UNECA report indicated that Africa's future is bright with the potential to realise a demographic transition and a large demographic dividend by the middle of this century.
It, however, raised a critical question as to what it takes for countries in Africa to achieve the age structure necessary for the demographic dividend, and under what conditions this age structure can catalyse the continent's economic growth.
These are important policy questions since as promising as it sounds, a demographic dividend is by no means guaranteed. How well countries capitalise on the demographic window has a lot to do with appropriate policies and the strength of institutions, social policy experts at the UNECA said.
They said that for fertility rates to decline and the age structure to change, working-age individuals need high-quality education and decent and productive jobs. Countries must invest in the education and health of the workforce, particularly where the demographic window of opportunity is still more than a decade away.