Benefits of input costs that lifted earnings despite muted revenue largely over
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2FY24 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies.
HDFC Securities said in a note that the key theme of the quarter was the continuation of input cost deflation, which helped companies improve their profitability in spite of muted YoY revenue growth.
“We believe this benefit of commodity cost deflation is largely over, and now future earnings growths have to be volume-led," the research said.
Further, 88 per cent of incremental YoY earnings growth came from only three sectors -- energy (56 per cent), auto (16 per cent) and lending financials (16 per cent) -- reflecting heavy lifting by these sectors.
"Our coverage universe saw strong YoY earnings growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, real estate, energy, cement and pharma sectors. On the other hand, staples, metals, chemicals, IT and consumer discretionary sectors disappointed," the note said.
The changes in earnings estimates were deeply concentrated. Seventy-seven per cent and 13 per cent of the earnings upgrades were led by the energy and auto sectors, respectively, while IT, metals and chemicals were responsible for 46 per cent, 28 per cent and 11 per cent of cuts, respectively, for FY24.
Similarly, auto, metal and lenders accounted for 23 per cent, 19 per cent and 14 per cent of FY25 upgrades while energy and IT led to 62 per cent and 18 per cent of cuts for the same year, respectively, the note said.
✔️ Benefits of input costs that lifted earnings despite muted revenue largely over
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